VP Stakes: Here's Who Trump Shouldn't Pick and Why

A lot of discussion on Trump’s VP short list — much of it surrounding Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio. Vance seems to lead the pack — which includes Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum.

Here’s why I’m not a fan of Vance as VP:

Party divided 51 Democrats to 49 Republicans with four Independents who caucus with Democrats. Vance won against Democrat Tim Ryan by just over 7 points. I’d feel better with a Vance selection were Trump polling double digits ahead of Biden in that state instead of just over the averaged margin of error. It’s not like Tim Scott’s South Carolina district where in 2022 he trounced the Democrat challenger by over 25 points. One seat is reliably red, the other not so much. It’s bad strategy to imperil any chance of a majority in the Senate. I don’t know that a Vance pick is enough to lock in Ohio, either. If Vance is picked, expect Democrats to make ad after ad of the time Vance called Trump “America’s Hitler” and wrote op/eds like this as a tactic to keep the right divided, regardless of whether or not (and why) Vance changed his thinking:

The left is preparing for a potential outcome so they’ve started circulating them again.

I can’t in good conscience back a Rubio VP after I watched him crumble onstage at Parkland where he went out before me and told an entire arena of people that he’d compromise on red flag laws and a gun registry. He went along to get along and that’s a dealbreaker for me. Plus, he’s from Florida. Judging by their zealous registration of GOP voters over Democrats and the recent elections that saw a massive red wave that gave their state legislature a supermajority, Florida isn’t going anywhere but red in November. There is no leverage to be gained from two running in the same state (and contrary to popular opinion, the 12th Amendment doesn’t forbid a president and vice-president originating in the same state, it only regulates how voters in the same state vote for them.

Doug Burgum is just a moderate, non-entity.

Tom Cotton comes from a solid red state and his addition as VP leverages nothing for the ticket.

Elise Stefanik was mentioned at one point but seems to have fallen off subsequent lists. Stefanik is a moderate Republican with a moderate record. Like Vance, she wasn’t always on board with Trump, once saying verbatim in a radio interview that Trump was “insulting to women.” When asked about this by Shannon Bream who mentioned it as it was cited by a New York Times piece, Stefanik because angry with Bream and accused Bream of citing some anonymous report in a NYT piece even though it was a literal, for-real, interview that Stefanik willingly gave to a local radio station that the NYT merely cited. Stefanik employed guilt by association to dodge answering about her previous soundbite instead of taking the opportunity to explain why she’s changed her thinking potentially persuading undecided voters in the process — a finessing of the situation that requires more advanced rhetorical artistry that simply denying it was ever said.

The Republican party needs to look more than just to November, they need to look eight years ahead. Whomever Trump picks for the ticket must have longevity. I still maintain that the biggest gains would come from a Brian Kemp or Glenn Youngkin ticket. Youngkin terms out in a year making him a potentially more practical choice. Virginia is in play and is now considered a toss-up state. Youngkin would bring in traditionally non-Trump GOP voters, uniting the rightward fray. Youngkin also isn’t super charismatic, which better suits Trump’s style. You can’t have two strong personalities on the same ticket without conflicting with each other at some point. Somebody’s gotta be the Johnny Carson and somebody’s gotta be the Ed McMahon.

My list for Trump’s VP is short and includes only governors: Kemp, Youngkin, DeSantis (same issue though that I have with Rubio being from the same state). Whoever is named must set up the GOP for 2028. The good news is that the Republican bench is overcrowded with presidential hopefuls, a wonderful problem to have — compared to Democrats who have … Whitmer? Buttigieg? Newsom?

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