The Cornyn - Paxton Dilemma

Trump said earlier today that he was going to weigh in on the Senate runoff. Neither incumbent John Cornyn nor his challenger, and current AG, Ken Paxton reached the 50% threshold, so they face off again this May.

Each candidate has problems that affect voters differently.

Cornyn was absolutely instrumental in getting Biden’s gun control package passed in 2022. He brought in more Republican senators than needed to overcome the filibuster. His record on immigration has been deservedly scrutinized, even more so now after he said he wants to help Trump “reform” the system:

“I do believe that President Trump is capable of, once the border is secure, which it is now, and once we’ve removed people who never should have been here in the first place, to have a conversation about what we want our immigration system to look like,” Cornyn told the Washington Examiner at a rally Monday.

“We don’t want to ever displace American workers, that’s for sure. But the fact is, virtually all of us, sometime or another in our family history, came from somewhere else, and to me, that’s one of our great assets, is our legal immigration system,” the Texas Republican continued.

He’s been a longtime supporter of H1B visas and removing restrictions to cap the number of entrants. He has a lot of legislative baggage.

Paxton’s baggage is personal. It’s hard to say that virtue doesn’t count considering the reams written by the Founders as to the importance of virtue in both the Federalist Papers and numerous correspondence. Paxton has a mistress (to which he freely admitted), a nasty divorce fight, and accusations of financial impropriety. Texas senators tried impeaching him but he was acquitted on all 16 counts. His record on the Second Amendment and immigration is solid.

One broke fidelity with voters, the other in his personal life. I get very Machiavellian when it comes to election strategy. Every election is all about me and all about you because we are the voters. Whichever candidate gets me left alone, lowered taxes, protects gun rights, and a cap H1Bs is the candidate who gets my vote.

If people wanted better or different candidates they should have worked harder — not in the primary, even that’s too late — before primary filing even began. I lost count of the number of people I hear complaining about the slate of candidates but who did absolutely nothing to recruit, raise money, block walk, phone bank, host events, et al. any potential challengers. They always cite that the “establishment” will win in the end, and they will, because voter apathy allows it. In a letter to his close friend Archibald Stuart, Thomas Jefferson wrote: “I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.” If there is any “inconvenience” worth suffering, it is one borne from preserving liberty.

This is where it gets tricky.

Trump doesn’t need to weigh in on this, but I’m sure he’s being pressured. Cornyn is viewed as a more reliable win in a general election that will already be close. Most polling has Talarico within striking distance of both:

I honestly question any survey that shows a lead beyond the margin of error at this point. Other, even more recent polling is all over the place as to which candidate is the best matchup against Talarico, but the prevailing thought in Austin (and from what I’m hearing, also in the D.C. consultancy circles) is that Cornyn is the safer bet. Grassroots doesn’t agree.

Cornyn was able to not only match Paxton’s momentum in the DFW metroplex, but lead him by enough to convince pollsters like Sabato that Cornyn will be the likely primary winner, thus keeping the race in the “likely Republican” rather than moving it to “leans Republican.”

Here’s an interesting note:

Paxton draws stronger support from 2024 Trump voters, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%, while Cornyn performs significantly better among voters who supported Harris or another candidate in 2024, winning 49% of that group compared to eight percent for Paxton.

It’s interesting because the last time Cornyn ran, he received more votes than Trump did in Texas. I chalked some of it up to split-ticket voting and apathy about potential fraud, but it’s still telling. Remember, however, that this was in 2020 and a lot has changed in the past six years.

The Senate majority is tight. It may be even tighter after midterms. We cannot afford to lose a single seat and we also cannot afford to spend inordinate amounts of money salvaging a race that should be winnable, especially at the expense of true battleground races that will really need the cash for the fight. Trump is feeling the pressure to make a call, but that doesn’t mean the candidate he orders out of the race will listen. If he backs Cornyn it will have down-ballot implications. If he backs Paxton will have down-ballot implications. Each candidate hits voters in different ways. I personally think Trump should keep his powder dry and if he’s going to involve himself in a runoff, it should be to endorse Brandon Herrera in HD23 and tell Tony Gonzales, the man whose despondent mistress self-immolated in her backyard, to get out of the race.

Nothing about this is fair to voters. Thanks, politics! Hard decisions must be made and when people make their choice they need to be all-in to secure victory, no matter what.

I’ll have more on this as the race progresses. In the meantime, if you want to listen to my remarks on the whole thing you can do so here:

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