No, Trump Didn't Cave On Iran
And Lebanon was never included in Iran's imaginary agreement.
First things first: No, there isn't an official, settled deal with Iran concerning ending the conflict or maintaining the transit through the Strait of Hormuz. There is no “concrete” deal to publish because there isn’t a deal yet because in-person negotiations haven’t begun and participating parties haven’t even yet arrived to do so.
The United States has a 15-point plan that serves as a launchpad-of-sorts to propel us to the negotiating table. Iran has a 10-point plan to serve as their starting point to enter negotiations. Contrary to the propaganda being widely reported, the U.S. hasn’t agreed to it (more on that later). That’s what this is: the carrot to get the donkeys to the table. It’s not a final deal or even framework for the deal. Apparently a lot of people who’ve never been in a position to negotiate anything, either for themselves or another, have unsurprisingly wrong ideas about what’s happening here.
Iran is demanding things that we have established as non-starters, namely the continuation of their uranium enrichment program and charging tolls to transit the strait. These are both moronic and should the admin be silly enough to accept them as part of a final agreement in the future, the criticism will be relentless and deserved.
Iran is also trying to retcon the basis for negotiations to include a whole other country, Lebanon, because Iran’s Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel and Israel responded, and now Iran is mad that its terror proxy was shelled:
“The war in Lebanon erupted soon after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Within days, Hezbollah fired rockets toward Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel responded with a large-scale bombing campaign in Lebanon. The Israeli military also issued sweeping evacuation warnings for much of the country’s south and for the densely populated southern outskirts of the capital, Beirut.”
As such, Iran briefly closed the strait again earlier today to retaliate on behalf of its terror proxy in another country.
It’s open again, but they’re still insisting that any deal now include Lebanon to protect Hezbollah from retaliation.
Again, there are no concrete “terms,” just a proposed framework to bring each party to the table.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were just dispatched today to begin negotiations with Iran. Vance, who has mostly been kept out of deliberations, was keen to go, something POTUS reportedly granted. I’m not sure that’s the best idea, considering Vance’s more Tucker Carlson-esque position on the issue, but time will tell and perhaps I’ll be pleasantly surprised. He so far seems publicly supportive of the admin’s approach. (Currently Vance is in Hungary to campaign for their big government authoritarian leader, Viktor Orban.)
Back to this Iranian 10-point plan. It’s important to note that Iran has not once demonstrated good faith in these proceedings. They promoted their demands as being accepted by the U.S. across their government TV stations and pushed the narrative to the press and the Woke Reich, who eagerly gobbled it up to stoke chaos. The White House confirmed that the 10-point plan Iran is promoting as an “accepted agreement” is nonsense:
This is how the narrative was farmed (via Matt Tardio):
Note the 4:33 timestamp on this White House post where Iran only is mentioned.
Now look at this statement from Pakistan’s Prime Minister, an hour later, which suddenly includes Lebanon:
The 10-point plan was Iran’s. The United States has our own 15-point plan. Iran insisted that the United States had agreed to their plan, which the White House denies. Now Iran is insisting that Lebanon, which was never part of these negotiations, is now part of these negotiations, per Pakistan, the home of bin Laden.
How did Pakistan get involved? The United States allowed them to help get Iran to the negotiating table. Now they’ve seemingly thrown a wrench in the works.
So no, Trump hasn’t caved; there isn’t yet a deal; if ever there is Lebanon, isn’t included; and this is far from over still.
If I were Trump, Vance is a leak test. If I were Vance, it's a resume pad for president. If Lebanon is considered a vassal state, where is the outrage over colonization? Peace can endure where hate is dead. Opportunity, capability, intent. Islam will always intend on war. It's part of their theology. Trump is removing capability and opportunity. Iran will have peace when Islam is dead.
When I heard about Lebanon suddenly being thrown in the mix, I had further confirmation that, whoever in the IRGC we are negotiating with, was not serious about ending anything. Dana, thanks for putting those screenshots of posts from POTUS DJT and the one posted after by Pakistan negotiators. Made everything crystal clear!