Gov. Ron DeSantis: DeSantis has to win this debate and show as much personality as possible without overshadowing the significant policy wins and promises delivered that got him to this point. Nothing short of a decisive victory will do. If Christie goes at him he’d be smart to bring up how Garden State Lizzo closed his beaches during the government shutdown but was photographed soaking up the rays on one with his family. When asked about it by frustrated constituents he replied: “That’s the way it goes. Run for governor, and you can have the residence.”
DeSantis needs to heavily hit his victories — including increasing Republican voter turnout by over 25k over Democrats since last election. Anyone who tries to hit him over the culture wars, “woke,” will have to do so from the left, if any are brave enough to take such a dumb risk.
It’s a delegate race at this point, national polling is irrelevant, and even though we’re still months out from Iowa, a bump from tonight means a bump in both fundraising and the polls.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Will want to maintain the bump in the polls his media hits and digital strategy have earned him — but not screw it up by saying something dumb. His weakest points are his contradictory positions on a host of issues discussed here and here — most pressingly on foreign policy. Ramaswamy is shockingly out of his depth on geopolitical issues, having admitted in a recent interview “Let’s just call a spade a spade: I didn’t know much of this six months ago.”
He will try to be spearhead on the culture issue but struggles with concrete action to back up his words, which haven’t proved to be worth much as of late.
Nikki Haley: She’s going to target Ramaswamy for his recent remarks on Taiwan and Israel — and anything he’s said on Ukraine. She’s a neo-con, but because she at least understands more here, it will be a matchup of her knowledge vs his rhetorical skills. She’ll also target DeSantis for calling the Ukraine-Russia conflict a land dispute.
She’s more palatable to moderate Republicans than DeSantis or Trump but too much like the old GOP establishment for the grassroots base. Polling for Haley hasn’t moved much, if at all, since she declared her candidacy and I don’t expect tonight to change this.
Mike Pence: I think he, more than DeSantis, is the main reason why Trump isn’t participating in the debate. Pence would have one hell of a moment against Trump, particularly for moderates, who would love nothing more than for Pence to say that Trump did nothing while a few rioters called for Pence’s head. Pence would bait Trump into a legal nightmare on GA and Mar-a-Lago and because Trump’s biggest weakness is his lack of verbal discipline, he’d take it and have his remarks used against him in court.
Trump’s absence robs Pence of this, so now he has to go onstage as half of the previous Republican admin. DeSantis doesn’t need to attack Trump since he’s not there, but he can attack him through Pence while attacking Pence as part of that admin.
Tim Scott: Needs a moment. He’s been vague on a lot of policy issues, preferring instead to discuss where he’s from etc., etc. He’s trying to shore up his cred as a hardcore conservative — tough to do when Scott was one of the first lawmakers out of the gate to condemn the shooting of an abusive criminal wanted on a rape charge who violated his victim’s restraining order before fighting with cops and trying to reach into his car for a knife that he admitted on national television was in his hand.
Chris Christie: Is this guy right now:
Due to the long-running animosity between Christie and Trump, Christie is a big, hungry hammer and to him everyone looks like a Trump nail. Will he rhetorically hit Pence? He ought to if his criticisms of Trump are sincere. Why not hit the guy who was a heartbeat away from the Resolute Desk during the entire four-year term?
Christie’s only goal tonight is to not physically hit someone and to leave something for the interns on the craft services table.
Asa Hutchinson: Why.
Doug Burgum: This will be Burgum’s one and only debate and he only got onstage with this one because he gave away gift cards. He hurt his leg playing basketball but is hobbling up on crutches.
The Outside Drama: Trump wined and dined CNN and NYT reporters last night who are now writing hit pieces about the other candidates; Tucker sat down with Trump a couple days ago and is publishing/airing his interview on X at the start of the debate; the Miami Mayor who shut down Miami beaches lied about making the debate stage.
If there is one thing you take away from tonight it’s this: VERY LITERALLY EVERY REPUBLICAN CONTENDER IS BETTER THAN BIDEN.